Freddie's Fodder: WHL Round Three

It’s been an enjoyable first couple of rounds in these 2010 WHL playoffs. My prognosticating has been fine out east, but I stumbled with my second round Western Conference predictions. Makes it tough when you only see those clubs once a season live, I try to watch a good number of games online but that in many cases doesn’t give you a full read on exactly what these clubs are all about. My 2010 prediction record heading into the 3rd round is 6-0 in the Eastern Conference and 3-3 in the West matchups.

Calgary (1) vs. Brandon (2)

It’s the series most people wanted to see to crown the Eastern Conference Champion, and after series victories for Calgary over Moose Jaw and Medicine Hat, along with Brandon’s victories over Red Deer and Saskatoon we are finally set for this marquee showdown. The road for the Wheaties has been less bumpy thus far as they are 8 and 2 for far in this post-season, compared to Calgary who is 8 and 5, after surviving a big time first round scare from Moose Jaw, and then capitalized on two costly late game giveaways from the Tigers to avoid another seventh game showdown in the second round against Medicine Hat. Calgary’s highest level hockey team still playing spring hockey was the leagues top team during the regular season, finishing three points better than Brandon. The two teams squared off four times during the regular season with Brandon winning three of those meetings. The Hitmen saw their only head to head victory come in their first meeting of the season back in early October, a 4-3 shootout win. The Wheat Kings outscored Calgary 18-11 during those four games. Martin Jones struggles against Brandon in goal going 0-3 with a 4.75 GAA and an .851 save percentage. Jacob Deserres will be the starter for Kelly Mcrimmon’s team who was 2 and 0 versus the Hitmen with a solid GAA of 2.50 and a very good .912 save percentage. Columbus prospect Matt Calvert led all scorers during those regular season meetings with five goals and one assist. Three other Hitmen also had six points (Scott Glennie, Brayden Schenn and Jay Fehr). Kris Foucault and Tyler Shattock topped the Hitmen with four points apiece. Statistically, Brandon’s special teams have been better through the playoffs to this point. The Wheat Kings are 3rd overall in both powerplay and penalty killing numbers thus far, while Calgary sits 7th in each of those categories. That may be the biggest reason why Calgary has been pushed pretty hard so far in these playoffs. During the regular season they boasted the leagues best powerplay and penalty kill. Brandon Kozun continues to get it done offensively, he is second in post-season scoring, one back of current leader Craig Cunningham. Brandon’s top point producer has been Brayden Schenn with 15 points.

How the two teams matchup:

In Goal: Martin Jones was good enough to be apart of Team Canada at the World Junior Championship and really found his game since returning to Calgary following the tournament. He probably hasn’t had the playoffs he has been hoping so far during the post-season but the ability to elevate is there. Jacob Deserres on the other hand may be exceeding expectations to this points. If he can give Brandon what he has already through the first two rounds, the Wheaties will take it.
Advantage: Calgary. I just see more upside with Jones.

On the back end: These are two excellent defence groups. Most teams would love to have one guy named Robak, Hamonic, Urbom, Stone, Mackenzie or Nyren. These teams each have three guys that could be number 1’s on many clubs around the league.
Advantage: Too close to call. These defense tandems are as good as you get.

Up front: Again each team is laden with talent. Calgary’s Brandon Kozun won the regular season scoring title and is supported by Tyer Shattock, Joel Broda, Kris Foucault, Misha Fisenko and Tyler Fiddler among others to lead a pretty deep group up front. How does Brandon counter? Just fine, thank you very much. Matt Calvert, Brayden Schenn and Scott Glennie lead a group that is supported by Aaron Lewadniuk, Brent Raedeke, Jay Fehr and a group of depth guys that rounds things out nicely.
Advantage: Brandon, the high end depth for me is just a touch better.

Coaching: Veteran Kelly Mcrimmon versus the younger Mike Williamson. Both these guys know junior hockey and how to lead quality programs.
Advantage: Kelly Mcrimmon has just been doing it longer and that experience tips the scale for me.

X-Factor: Home ice advantage belongs to Calgary, I think that will play a factor in this series. Brandon is playing next month at the Memorial Cup. Calgary would need to win two more rounds to make that happen. These teams are both so talented, and play strong team games, it’s tough to draw out distinct differences between them. However, the need to win outweighs wanting to win real bad. That’s the advantage for Calgary.

Hitmen in 7.

Tri City Americans (1) vs. Vancouver Giants (5)

Two very good teams. The guys out west can probably break this series down better than me from afar, so I will leave that to them. I will throw my prediction out there however… Don Hay is too good of a coach, plain and simple! I made the mistake of picking against the Giants in Round 2, and with the way they’re playing I am not about to make that mistake twice.
Vancouver in 6.

Thanks,
Fred

Fred Jack is the the Colour Analyst on Hurricanes Radio Broadcasts on CJOC-FM